Hey everyone
The blog will be moving over to contribute to the KDK Fund. You will be able to track the fund's activities from the blog, @kdkfund, and at kdkfund@gmail.com.
Thank you
Thursday, November 21, 2013
Friday, November 15, 2013
Start Putting Stop For End of Year Trade
With the SPY price getting close to the target price of $181.00 (it is now in the $179 area), there should be some interest in moving the stop loss to protect gains on the end of year trade (older posts below). The suggestion would be to put a stop loss in the 176-177 range. This protects your investment. There could be a slight pullback before the final push above $180. This area of stop loss allows for that.
This will be a nice end of the year for those invested. But there are still bullish opportunities for 2014. Good luck to all.
Start of Trade Post
Continuing of Trade Post
This will be a nice end of the year for those invested. But there are still bullish opportunities for 2014. Good luck to all.
Start of Trade Post
Continuing of Trade Post
Friday, October 25, 2013
Continue End of Year Trade
Hey
Now that earnings are generally out, the end of year trade should be fully invested. The $180.00 target on SPY is still the plan. The government shutdown is over. The earnings have been ok without any big misses that would affect the trajectory of the trade. An analysis of the situation will continue to the end of the year. The trade should have started with the SPY trading at $171.00. A $9.00 profit on the trade represents a 5+% return in 3 months time. If you chose to trade options on this information, the profit would be far more.
Possible End of Year Trade
Start End of Year Trade
Happy Trading!
Now that earnings are generally out, the end of year trade should be fully invested. The $180.00 target on SPY is still the plan. The government shutdown is over. The earnings have been ok without any big misses that would affect the trajectory of the trade. An analysis of the situation will continue to the end of the year. The trade should have started with the SPY trading at $171.00. A $9.00 profit on the trade represents a 5+% return in 3 months time. If you chose to trade options on this information, the profit would be far more.
Possible End of Year Trade
Start End of Year Trade
Happy Trading!
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Ford November $20.00 Call Purchase
A Ford November $20.00 call option was purchased for $0.05 before commissions and fees. The target for the options is $.50. The stock is currently trading at $17.25. Reason(s) for the trade are below:
- stock has been consolidating in the last month
- September monthly sales are expected to be positive
- price of option (risk) was acceptable to target price (reward)
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
- stock has been consolidating in the last month
- September monthly sales are expected to be positive
- price of option (risk) was acceptable to target price (reward)
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Friday, September 20, 2013
Part 1 of End of Year Bull Trade
Hey everyone
Since the Federal Reserve decided not to taper this month, a bullish scenario for the rest of the year is starting to emerge. This big piece of policy allows for a bullish trade in SPY to begin with a 25% commitment. The target for the trade would be $180.00. Currently the SPY trades at $171.61.
Because there are other large pieces to the end of year puzzle to be fit, an argument not to fully commit needs to be heeded. The government still needs to work through their funding issues. Any stoppage will have a negative effect on the market and will put the bullish trade in jeopardy. Corporate earnings are due out next month. Even thought there might be some bad news earnings wise, it is the guidance that is important. Bad guidance will end the bullish trade. Decent guidance will propel the trade.
If the government avoids a shutdown, and there is positive guidance, going full trade would make sense. But if there is a shutdown, and guidance fails, the bullish trade should end at your stop loss.
Current holdings for The Keane Trade are:
- Ford Oct $18.00 call options (link here)
A previous post regarding the idea behind the trade can be found here.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Since the Federal Reserve decided not to taper this month, a bullish scenario for the rest of the year is starting to emerge. This big piece of policy allows for a bullish trade in SPY to begin with a 25% commitment. The target for the trade would be $180.00. Currently the SPY trades at $171.61.
Because there are other large pieces to the end of year puzzle to be fit, an argument not to fully commit needs to be heeded. The government still needs to work through their funding issues. Any stoppage will have a negative effect on the market and will put the bullish trade in jeopardy. Corporate earnings are due out next month. Even thought there might be some bad news earnings wise, it is the guidance that is important. Bad guidance will end the bullish trade. Decent guidance will propel the trade.
If the government avoids a shutdown, and there is positive guidance, going full trade would make sense. But if there is a shutdown, and guidance fails, the bullish trade should end at your stop loss.
Current holdings for The Keane Trade are:
- Ford Oct $18.00 call options (link here)
A previous post regarding the idea behind the trade can be found here.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Purchased Ford Oct $18.00
Hey
The Ford October $18.00 call option has been purchased for $0.30 before commissions and fees. The target for the option is $1.00. The stock is trading at $17.61. The reason(s) for the trade are below:
- Continued momentum in the stock based on sales
- Anticipation of decent September month figures
- Upward revisions in EPS and price targets at $20.00 by multiple brokerage firms including Citigroup.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
The Ford October $18.00 call option has been purchased for $0.30 before commissions and fees. The target for the option is $1.00. The stock is trading at $17.61. The reason(s) for the trade are below:
- Continued momentum in the stock based on sales
- Anticipation of decent September month figures
- Upward revisions in EPS and price targets at $20.00 by multiple brokerage firms including Citigroup.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Sold Ford Sep $17.00 Call
Hey
Today the Ford $17.00 Call was sold for $0.74 before commissions and fees. The reason for the sale is that the option was expiring tomorrow and there was a profit on the trade.
The link to the post explaining the purchase is here.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Today the Ford $17.00 Call was sold for $0.74 before commissions and fees. The reason for the sale is that the option was expiring tomorrow and there was a profit on the trade.
The link to the post explaining the purchase is here.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Prepping For Possible SPY Trade
The S&P 500 is moving into a tipping point position. Looking at both fundamental and technical indicators show a decent trade set up for the rest of the year. The main question for a trader is which way will it go and by how much?
Fundamentally, there is a large amount of data that can move the market. The Federal Reserve will be meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. In that meeting, there will be an important decision in regards to the level of Quantitative Easing that they do going forward. If the Federal Reserve decides to taper the QE by a large amount per month, the market will probably head lower. If the taper amount is small to zero, the market will rally past the all time high and continue the leg started in late August. To be clear, this writing has nothing to do with whether or not the Federal Reserve taper decision is correct or incorrect. It is simply a guide and opinion as to how to trade the market based on the Federal Reserve's policy decision next week. Also, a large amount of companies within the S&P 500 will be releasing their quarterly earnings during the month of October. Any surprises by a large number of companies to either side will certainly affect the direction of the market. If both of these topics are of the same sentiment, the market should move a significant distance in that particular direction.
On the technical side of things, SPY is showing many indicators that can be used by both the bulls and the bears. The high for SPY is just a a few points away from the current price. Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts are at a neutral point. The Bollinger Bands are closing indicating increasing pressure for a move. A bullish move would continue a possible leg forward another 5-10 percent. A bearish move would be indicated by the possibility of a right shoulder of a Head and Shoulder formation; which could send SPY down 10% or more if the Head and Shoulders formation is confirmed.
The start of the plan will be to wait until after the Federal Reserve decision next Wednesday. A straddle position before the announcement is also a way to trade if you are worried about missing a portion of the move. But you are going to lose value in the incorrect side anyway. So I prefer waiting. Start a partial position in SPY going the way of the sentiment created by the announcement. Make sure to put a stop order to protect against whiplash. As confirmation of the move happens through the first couple of weeks of October, the full positions should be created.
If a bullish scenario is apparent, then start a December Call Option position after a breakout of $170.00. The exact option cannot be known yet but it should be as close to in the money as possible. The run should get to $180.00 by the end of the year. If a bearish scenario is apparent, a December Put Option position should be made. A right shoulder should form in the next week. A race to $154.00 could be hit.
As always, do your own due diligence. There are no positions held or trades on right now in SPY.
Fundamentally, there is a large amount of data that can move the market. The Federal Reserve will be meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. In that meeting, there will be an important decision in regards to the level of Quantitative Easing that they do going forward. If the Federal Reserve decides to taper the QE by a large amount per month, the market will probably head lower. If the taper amount is small to zero, the market will rally past the all time high and continue the leg started in late August. To be clear, this writing has nothing to do with whether or not the Federal Reserve taper decision is correct or incorrect. It is simply a guide and opinion as to how to trade the market based on the Federal Reserve's policy decision next week. Also, a large amount of companies within the S&P 500 will be releasing their quarterly earnings during the month of October. Any surprises by a large number of companies to either side will certainly affect the direction of the market. If both of these topics are of the same sentiment, the market should move a significant distance in that particular direction.
On the technical side of things, SPY is showing many indicators that can be used by both the bulls and the bears. The high for SPY is just a a few points away from the current price. Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts are at a neutral point. The Bollinger Bands are closing indicating increasing pressure for a move. A bullish move would continue a possible leg forward another 5-10 percent. A bearish move would be indicated by the possibility of a right shoulder of a Head and Shoulder formation; which could send SPY down 10% or more if the Head and Shoulders formation is confirmed.
The start of the plan will be to wait until after the Federal Reserve decision next Wednesday. A straddle position before the announcement is also a way to trade if you are worried about missing a portion of the move. But you are going to lose value in the incorrect side anyway. So I prefer waiting. Start a partial position in SPY going the way of the sentiment created by the announcement. Make sure to put a stop order to protect against whiplash. As confirmation of the move happens through the first couple of weeks of October, the full positions should be created.
If a bullish scenario is apparent, then start a December Call Option position after a breakout of $170.00. The exact option cannot be known yet but it should be as close to in the money as possible. The run should get to $180.00 by the end of the year. If a bearish scenario is apparent, a December Put Option position should be made. A right shoulder should form in the next week. A race to $154.00 could be hit.
As always, do your own due diligence. There are no positions held or trades on right now in SPY.
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Call Options Purchased for Ford
Today, a September $17.00 call option was purchased for $0.31. The expectation of the trade is that the options will get to $1.00 before expiration. The stock is currently trading at $16.93. The reasons for the purchase are below:
- Ford has just released outstanding monthly numbers for August. The link to its numbers are here.
- Analysts have been continuously and consistently bullish on the stock.
- A large green candle today off of support and moving averages
- Stochastics such as RSI and MACD show a strengthening bullish condition.
- Getting to $18.00 has a high probability of success.
- Ford has just released outstanding monthly numbers for August. The link to its numbers are here.
- Analysts have been continuously and consistently bullish on the stock.
- A large green candle today off of support and moving averages
- Stochastics such as RSI and MACD show a strengthening bullish condition.
- Getting to $18.00 has a high probability of success.
Saturday, July 20, 2013
Week Ending 7/21 Review
Here is the week's trading in review. There were gains,losses and more purchases. The major lesson learned this week is that it is not wise to choose tops or bottoms and to wait for confirmation.
Profits taken:
An August QQQ $74 Call was sold as the profit stop price was hit. The trade ended Code Green
A GLD August 2nd $121.00 Put was bought and sold as the loss stop price was hit. The trade ended Code Red.
An August JPM $55 Call was purchased.
An August USO $38 Put was purchased.
Two August SBUX $72.50 Calls were purchased.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Profits taken:
An August QQQ $74 Call was sold as the profit stop price was hit. The trade ended Code Green
A GLD August 2nd $121.00 Put was bought and sold as the loss stop price was hit. The trade ended Code Red.
An August JPM $55 Call was purchased.
An August USO $38 Put was purchased.
Two August SBUX $72.50 Calls were purchased.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Friday, July 19, 2013
Stopped out of GLD Put trade
The stop price of the GLD Put trade has happened. GLD has surpassed a resistance level of $125.
Current open positions are JPM Aug $55 Calls, and USO Aug 38 Puts.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Current open positions are JPM Aug $55 Calls, and USO Aug 38 Puts.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Thursday, July 18, 2013
New Trade in JPM August Calls
A new trade purchasing the JPM Aug $55.00 call has happened. The calls were purchased for $1.82. The target is $3.50. The stock is currently trading at $56.14.
Other current trades include an Aug 16 NTAP $40.00 call and an Aug 2 GLD $121.00 put.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Other current trades include an Aug 16 NTAP $40.00 call and an Aug 2 GLD $121.00 put.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Wednesday, July 17, 2013
New Put Trade in GLD
An August 2nd $121.00 put has been bought in GLD. The Put was purchased for $1.38. GyLD is currently trading at $123.31.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Opened Trade in LNKD
A LNKD July $195 call has been purchased. The reason for the purchase is today's breakout in price to the upside.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Stopped Out of Apple July $430 Call For Profit
The Apple July $430 Call Option trade was stopped out today at $3.40 after commissions for a 17% profit.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Friday, June 21, 2013
GLD Put Trade Closed Profitable
The stop price was hit on the GLD Put trade. The trade ended profitable. Stats are below.
Type: July GLD $134 Put
Entry Date: June 14
Entry Price (with commissions): $3.19
Exit Date: June 21
Exit Price (after commissions): $8.95
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Type: July GLD $134 Put
Entry Date: June 14
Entry Price (with commissions): $3.19
Exit Date: June 21
Exit Price (after commissions): $8.95
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Starbucks Trade Over and Profitable
The stop price was hit on the Starbucks July $65.00 call trade. The trade was profitable. Stats are below.
Type: July $65.00 call
Entry Date: June 13
Entry Price (including commissions): $195.00
Close Date: June 19
Close Price (after commissions): $231.00
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Type: July $65.00 call
Entry Date: June 13
Entry Price (including commissions): $195.00
Close Date: June 19
Close Price (after commissions): $231.00
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Update on Starbucks July $65.00 Call Trade
Starbucks has moved past $67.00. Therefor the July $65.00 call option price has risen to a point where the stop price now guarantees a profit on the trade.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Update on GLD Trade
GLD has moved below $132.00 today. Because of this move, the price of the put has moved into a position where the stop price now guarantees a profit.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Monday, June 17, 2013
June 17 Current Holdings
These are the current holdings for the trading account:
- Starbucks (SBUX) Jul $65 call. Currently the trade is Code Yellow.
- Amazon (AMZN) June 22 $290 call. Currently the trade is Code Orange.
- Gold ETF (GLD) Jul $134.00 put. Currently the trade is Code Orange.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
- Starbucks (SBUX) Jul $65 call. Currently the trade is Code Yellow.
- Amazon (AMZN) June 22 $290 call. Currently the trade is Code Orange.
- Gold ETF (GLD) Jul $134.00 put. Currently the trade is Code Orange.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Color Code Status for Trades
The following are the color code designations for trades.
Red - This is where the trade is over and it is time to sell at a loss. The stock has fallen to the stop loss.
Orange - This is where the stock is lower than the cost basis of the purchase but higher than the stop loss price.
Yellow - This is where the stock is above the cost basis of the purchase but lower than the target price.
Green - This is where the stock has surpassed the target price.
Red - This is where the trade is over and it is time to sell at a loss. The stock has fallen to the stop loss.
Orange - This is where the stock is lower than the cost basis of the purchase but higher than the stop loss price.
Yellow - This is where the stock is above the cost basis of the purchase but lower than the target price.
Green - This is where the stock has surpassed the target price.
Friday, June 14, 2013
Welcome
This space will be dedicated to most things trading. The focus of the blog will be on trades made. But other information and news will be posted here as well. Feel free to comment respectively on any of the posts. Good luck to all.
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