A Ford November $20.00 call option was purchased for $0.05 before commissions and fees. The target for the options is $.50. The stock is currently trading at $17.25. Reason(s) for the trade are below:
- stock has been consolidating in the last month
- September monthly sales are expected to be positive
- price of option (risk) was acceptable to target price (reward)
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Thursday, September 26, 2013
Friday, September 20, 2013
Part 1 of End of Year Bull Trade
Hey everyone
Since the Federal Reserve decided not to taper this month, a bullish scenario for the rest of the year is starting to emerge. This big piece of policy allows for a bullish trade in SPY to begin with a 25% commitment. The target for the trade would be $180.00. Currently the SPY trades at $171.61.
Because there are other large pieces to the end of year puzzle to be fit, an argument not to fully commit needs to be heeded. The government still needs to work through their funding issues. Any stoppage will have a negative effect on the market and will put the bullish trade in jeopardy. Corporate earnings are due out next month. Even thought there might be some bad news earnings wise, it is the guidance that is important. Bad guidance will end the bullish trade. Decent guidance will propel the trade.
If the government avoids a shutdown, and there is positive guidance, going full trade would make sense. But if there is a shutdown, and guidance fails, the bullish trade should end at your stop loss.
Current holdings for The Keane Trade are:
- Ford Oct $18.00 call options (link here)
A previous post regarding the idea behind the trade can be found here.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Since the Federal Reserve decided not to taper this month, a bullish scenario for the rest of the year is starting to emerge. This big piece of policy allows for a bullish trade in SPY to begin with a 25% commitment. The target for the trade would be $180.00. Currently the SPY trades at $171.61.
Because there are other large pieces to the end of year puzzle to be fit, an argument not to fully commit needs to be heeded. The government still needs to work through their funding issues. Any stoppage will have a negative effect on the market and will put the bullish trade in jeopardy. Corporate earnings are due out next month. Even thought there might be some bad news earnings wise, it is the guidance that is important. Bad guidance will end the bullish trade. Decent guidance will propel the trade.
If the government avoids a shutdown, and there is positive guidance, going full trade would make sense. But if there is a shutdown, and guidance fails, the bullish trade should end at your stop loss.
Current holdings for The Keane Trade are:
- Ford Oct $18.00 call options (link here)
A previous post regarding the idea behind the trade can be found here.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Thursday, September 19, 2013
Purchased Ford Oct $18.00
Hey
The Ford October $18.00 call option has been purchased for $0.30 before commissions and fees. The target for the option is $1.00. The stock is trading at $17.61. The reason(s) for the trade are below:
- Continued momentum in the stock based on sales
- Anticipation of decent September month figures
- Upward revisions in EPS and price targets at $20.00 by multiple brokerage firms including Citigroup.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
The Ford October $18.00 call option has been purchased for $0.30 before commissions and fees. The target for the option is $1.00. The stock is trading at $17.61. The reason(s) for the trade are below:
- Continued momentum in the stock based on sales
- Anticipation of decent September month figures
- Upward revisions in EPS and price targets at $20.00 by multiple brokerage firms including Citigroup.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Sold Ford Sep $17.00 Call
Hey
Today the Ford $17.00 Call was sold for $0.74 before commissions and fees. The reason for the sale is that the option was expiring tomorrow and there was a profit on the trade.
The link to the post explaining the purchase is here.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Today the Ford $17.00 Call was sold for $0.74 before commissions and fees. The reason for the sale is that the option was expiring tomorrow and there was a profit on the trade.
The link to the post explaining the purchase is here.
**Disclaimer - This blog is just reporting information and should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Do your due diligence before investing or trading. **
Wednesday, September 11, 2013
Prepping For Possible SPY Trade
The S&P 500 is moving into a tipping point position. Looking at both fundamental and technical indicators show a decent trade set up for the rest of the year. The main question for a trader is which way will it go and by how much?
Fundamentally, there is a large amount of data that can move the market. The Federal Reserve will be meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. In that meeting, there will be an important decision in regards to the level of Quantitative Easing that they do going forward. If the Federal Reserve decides to taper the QE by a large amount per month, the market will probably head lower. If the taper amount is small to zero, the market will rally past the all time high and continue the leg started in late August. To be clear, this writing has nothing to do with whether or not the Federal Reserve taper decision is correct or incorrect. It is simply a guide and opinion as to how to trade the market based on the Federal Reserve's policy decision next week. Also, a large amount of companies within the S&P 500 will be releasing their quarterly earnings during the month of October. Any surprises by a large number of companies to either side will certainly affect the direction of the market. If both of these topics are of the same sentiment, the market should move a significant distance in that particular direction.
On the technical side of things, SPY is showing many indicators that can be used by both the bulls and the bears. The high for SPY is just a a few points away from the current price. Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts are at a neutral point. The Bollinger Bands are closing indicating increasing pressure for a move. A bullish move would continue a possible leg forward another 5-10 percent. A bearish move would be indicated by the possibility of a right shoulder of a Head and Shoulder formation; which could send SPY down 10% or more if the Head and Shoulders formation is confirmed.
The start of the plan will be to wait until after the Federal Reserve decision next Wednesday. A straddle position before the announcement is also a way to trade if you are worried about missing a portion of the move. But you are going to lose value in the incorrect side anyway. So I prefer waiting. Start a partial position in SPY going the way of the sentiment created by the announcement. Make sure to put a stop order to protect against whiplash. As confirmation of the move happens through the first couple of weeks of October, the full positions should be created.
If a bullish scenario is apparent, then start a December Call Option position after a breakout of $170.00. The exact option cannot be known yet but it should be as close to in the money as possible. The run should get to $180.00 by the end of the year. If a bearish scenario is apparent, a December Put Option position should be made. A right shoulder should form in the next week. A race to $154.00 could be hit.
As always, do your own due diligence. There are no positions held or trades on right now in SPY.
Fundamentally, there is a large amount of data that can move the market. The Federal Reserve will be meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday. In that meeting, there will be an important decision in regards to the level of Quantitative Easing that they do going forward. If the Federal Reserve decides to taper the QE by a large amount per month, the market will probably head lower. If the taper amount is small to zero, the market will rally past the all time high and continue the leg started in late August. To be clear, this writing has nothing to do with whether or not the Federal Reserve taper decision is correct or incorrect. It is simply a guide and opinion as to how to trade the market based on the Federal Reserve's policy decision next week. Also, a large amount of companies within the S&P 500 will be releasing their quarterly earnings during the month of October. Any surprises by a large number of companies to either side will certainly affect the direction of the market. If both of these topics are of the same sentiment, the market should move a significant distance in that particular direction.
On the technical side of things, SPY is showing many indicators that can be used by both the bulls and the bears. The high for SPY is just a a few points away from the current price. Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts are at a neutral point. The Bollinger Bands are closing indicating increasing pressure for a move. A bullish move would continue a possible leg forward another 5-10 percent. A bearish move would be indicated by the possibility of a right shoulder of a Head and Shoulder formation; which could send SPY down 10% or more if the Head and Shoulders formation is confirmed.
The start of the plan will be to wait until after the Federal Reserve decision next Wednesday. A straddle position before the announcement is also a way to trade if you are worried about missing a portion of the move. But you are going to lose value in the incorrect side anyway. So I prefer waiting. Start a partial position in SPY going the way of the sentiment created by the announcement. Make sure to put a stop order to protect against whiplash. As confirmation of the move happens through the first couple of weeks of October, the full positions should be created.
If a bullish scenario is apparent, then start a December Call Option position after a breakout of $170.00. The exact option cannot be known yet but it should be as close to in the money as possible. The run should get to $180.00 by the end of the year. If a bearish scenario is apparent, a December Put Option position should be made. A right shoulder should form in the next week. A race to $154.00 could be hit.
As always, do your own due diligence. There are no positions held or trades on right now in SPY.
Wednesday, September 4, 2013
Call Options Purchased for Ford
Today, a September $17.00 call option was purchased for $0.31. The expectation of the trade is that the options will get to $1.00 before expiration. The stock is currently trading at $16.93. The reasons for the purchase are below:
- Ford has just released outstanding monthly numbers for August. The link to its numbers are here.
- Analysts have been continuously and consistently bullish on the stock.
- A large green candle today off of support and moving averages
- Stochastics such as RSI and MACD show a strengthening bullish condition.
- Getting to $18.00 has a high probability of success.
- Ford has just released outstanding monthly numbers for August. The link to its numbers are here.
- Analysts have been continuously and consistently bullish on the stock.
- A large green candle today off of support and moving averages
- Stochastics such as RSI and MACD show a strengthening bullish condition.
- Getting to $18.00 has a high probability of success.
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